A Real-Time Assessment of Inflation Nowcasting at the Cleveland Fed  (with Edward Knotek II)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 23-06 (2023) [paper link]

Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness (with Robert Rich, and Randal Verbrugge)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 22-05 (2022) [paper link]

Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation? (with Randal Verbrugge)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 21-19 (2021) [paper link] 

Cyclical versus Acyclical Inflation: A Deeper Dive
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 19-13 (2019) [paper link]
- Data is available to download from the San Francisco Fed website

Have Inflation Dynamics Changed? (with Edward Knotek II)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 17-21 (2017) [paper link]

The Likelihood of 2 Percent Inflation in the Next Three Years (with Ellis W. Tallman)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 16-14 (2016) [paper link]

Federal Funds Rates Based on Seven Simple Monetary Policy Rules (with E. Knotek II, R. Verbrugge, C. Garciga, and C. Treanor )
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 16-07 (2016) [paper link] [download latest data]

Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty (with Edward Knotek II and Todd Clark)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 15-03 (2015) [paper link]

On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity (with Edward Knotek II)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2014-14 (2014) [paper link]

The Slowdown in Residential Investment and Future Prospects (with Edward Knotek II)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2014-10 (2014) [paper link]

Using an Improved Taylor Rule to Predict When Policy Changes Will Occur (with Charles Carlstrom)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2014-02 (2014) [paper link]

When Might the Federal Funds Rate Lift Off? Computing the Probabilities of Crossing Unemployment and Inflation Thresholds (and Floors) (with  Edward Knotek II)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2013-19 (2013) [paper link]

Improving Inflation Forecasts in the Medium to Long Term
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2013-16 (2013) [paper link]

Forecasting Implications of the Recent Decline in Inflation (with Todd Clark)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2013-15 (2013) [paper link]

Forecasting Inflation? Target the Middle (with Brent Meyer and Guhan Venkatu)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2013-05 (2013) [paper link]

Where Would the Federal Funds Rate Be, If It Could Be Negative? (with Ellis W. Tallman)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2012-15 (2012) [paper link]

Macroeconomic Models, Forecasting, and Policymaking (with Andrea Pescatori)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2011-19 (2011) [paper link]

Food and Energy Price Shocks: What Other Prices Are Affected? (with Todd Clark)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2011-14 (2011) [paper link]

Buy a Home or Rent? A Better Way to Choose (with Emre Ergungor)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2011-06 (2011) [paper link]

Unemployment after the Recession: A New Natural Rate? (with Murat Tasci)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 2010-11 (2010) [paper link]

Are We Engineering Ourselves out of Manufacturing Jobs? (with Mark Schweitzer)
Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary No. 20060101 (2006) [paper link]

Explaining Low Inflation: Model-Based Decomposition, Economic Trends, November 2015 [link]

The Gap between Services Inflation and Goods Inflation, Economic Trends, June 2015 [link]

Uncertainty and Risk around the FOMC’s Macroeconomic Forecasts: Back to Normal, Economic Trends, June 2014 [link]

Does Nonfarm Payroll Growth Improve the Taylor Rule? (with C. Carlstrom and S. Chapman), Economic Trends, February 2013 [link]

The Credit Environment for Business Loans (with Yuliya Demyanyk and Kent Cherny), Economic Trends, May 2009 [link]

Fourth District Bank Holding Companies (with Joseph Haubrich and Kent Cherny), Economic Trends, April 2009 [link]

FDIC Funds (with Joseph Haubrich and Kent Cherny), Economic Trends, March 2009 [link]

Fourth District Community Banks (with Joseph Haubrich and Kent Cherny), Economic Trends, December 2008 [link]

Business Loan Markets (with Joseph Haubrich), Economic Trends, November 2008 [link]

Fourth District Bank Holding Company Conditions (with Joseph Haubrich), Economic Trends, July 2008 [link]

Business Loan Markets (with Joseph Haubrich), Economic Trends, May 2008 [link]

FDIC Funds (with Joseph Haubrich), Economic Trends, May 2008 [link]

Fourth District Bank Holding Companies (with Joseph Haubrich), Economic Trends, April 2008 [link]

Banking Structure (with Joseph Haubrich), Economic Trends, February 2008 [link]

Business Loan Markets (with Joseph Haubrich), Economic Trends, February 2008 [link]

Fourth District Community Banks (with Joseph Haubrich), Economic Trends, January 2008 [link]

Fourth District Community Banks (with Edward Nosal), Economic Trends, December 2007 [link]

Business Loan Markets (with Edward Nosal), Economic Trends, November 2007 [link]

Mortgage Lending (with Edward Nosal), Economic Trends, November 2007 [link]

Fourth District Bank Holding Companies (with Edward Nosal), Economic Trends, October 2007 [link]